Brexit has already hurt EU and non-EU exports

This Blog post, written by Dr Huw Edwards, was originally published in The Conversation

“Over the past few months, we have been investigating how the vote of June 23 2016 has since affected the values and patterns of Britain’s trade with major trading partners inside and outside the European Union. By comparing trade flows with a model of what UK trade flows would have looked like had the UK voted to stay in the EU, we can clearly see that British exports to both EU and non-EU countries have taken a hit.

 

“The very fact that Brexit hasn’t actually happened yet makes this question even more interesting to us as trade economists. No tariffs or trade barriers have been placed between the UK and EU, and yet companies are already aware that, depending upon the final deal, there may be substantial barriers within months. Several academic studies have emphasised that policy uncertainty is a major deterrent to trade, and the current Brexit negotiation period has been a good opportunity to test this….”

For the full post, please visit The Conversation.

Dr Huw Edwards is Senior Lecturer in Economics and leader of the TRANSIT research interest group at the School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University. Huw can be reached on T.H.Edwards@lboro.ac.uk