by Dr. Dorina Baltag, Visiting Fellow, Institute for Diplomacy and International Affairs

Moldova’s parliamentary elections have confirmed one thing above all: democracy in the region remains fragile, but alive. The victory of pro-European forces — narrower than before — shows that citizens still see their future anchored in the European Union, even if fatigue, frustration, and polarisation have made that choice more complex than in 2021.

The results reveal both resilience and vulnerability. Resilience, because despite relentless disinformation from Russia, economic hardship, and attempts to divide society, Moldovans once again rejected the promise of ‘stability’ offered by Moscow’s proxies. Vulnerability, because those same forces now sit in Parliament, ready to obstruct reforms and exploit divisions between citizens at home and abroad.

Election Climate: A Test of Resilience

This election became a testing ground — for Russia, which deployed multiple tools of interference, and for Moldova, whose institutions had to prove their resilience. For Moscow, this was the last real chance to cement political influence inside Moldova’s government — to bring loyal actors to power and preserve Moldova as a fragile state. A weak Moldova serves Russia’s destabilising interests at Europe’s frontier.

The country faced massive foreign interference, with hundreds of millions of euros funnelled to divide society, bribe voters, and amplify false narratives. Yet Moldova proved more resilient than expected. The government and institutions did a commendable job in raising awareness about the stakes of this vote and ensuring preparedness.

As experts assessed, compared to previous years, mobilisation was exemplary — media, police, the Central Electoral Commission, and civil society worked in coordination. Legal reforms introduced stronger safeguards for electoral integrity, backed by inter-institutional cooperation and swift responses to manipulation. Sanctioning political parties and politicians for illicit financing gave society a sense that impunity may finally be ending.

Moldova, EU and Russia

The current pro-EU ruling party – PAS – remains the strongest political force, securing 55 out of 101 seats in the next Parliament. This outcome represents a vote of confidence from citizens, even if it comes with a warning. The ‘hope vote’ of 2021 has given way to reform fatigue, slow judicial progress, and everyday economic pressures. For many Moldovans, the promise of transformation has yet to translate into better living standards — and people judge governments by the cost of life, not by policy frameworks.

At the same time, the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc consolidated but did not expand the pro-Russian electorate, maintaining a stable 30–35% base concentrated in Gagauzia, Transnistria-adjacent districts, and rural communities. Its campaign relied on fear narratives — war, NATO, ‘loss of sovereignty’ — amplified by Russian-backed media and the co-optation of trusted institutions such as the Church, long absorbed into Moscow’s propaganda ecosystem.

For Russia, this election was a missed opportunity — its last realistic attempt to cement influence in the Moldovan government. A weak and divided Moldova would have served the Kremlin’s destabilisation agenda. Instead, the results confirmed that Moldovans—both at home and abroad—continue to choose Europe, even if that choice is cautious and conditional.

For the EU, the implications are equally clear: the pro-European majority is intact but vulnerable. PAS governs with a slim margin and faces an aggressive opposition determined to obstruct reforms and weaponise public frustration. The government must respond not with rhetoric but with results — improving living standards, strengthening the rule of law, and making the benefits of European integration tangible in every region, including Moldova’s periphery.

At the same time, Chisinau must not normalise anti-European narratives as a legitimate alternative in political discourse. The danger is not only external interference but also internal fatigue — when democracy feels abstract and distant. Moldova’s long-term stability will depend on moving beyond ‘geopolitical elections’ and building a political culture rooted in well-being, dignity, and credible governance.

The Road Ahead: Resilience and Lessons for Europe

Moldova has moved swiftly through the EU accession process — completing the screening stage and preparing to open the fundamental clusters of negotiations. The next strategic question is whether to decouple its path from Ukraine — a move that could accelerate Moldova’s readiness but also test regional solidarity.

The EU’s credibility now hinges on its ability to deliver on promises. Integration support must go hand in hand with protection against destabilising actors — both domestic and foreign. This means investing not only in state institutions but also in civil society, independent media, and diaspora organisations, which act as natural allies for democracy and communication.

Yet Moldova’s path to Europe will be shaped as much by resilience as by reform. The country continues to face security threats, economic fragility, and social divisions. Combating disinformation cannot rely solely on debunking falsehoods — it must focus on building trust, civic education, and inclusion.

For the EU, Moldova’s experience offers a broader lesson: strengthening democratic resilience in candidate countries is not only about institutions at home but also about its citizens as well as diaspora enfranchisement abroad. These are complementary forms of resilience-building, showing how civic activism and diaspora knowledge can advance democratic literacy and counter foreign manipulation.

Moldova’s story demonstrates that the defence of democracy does not stop at borders — it extends through the networks of citizens, both at home and abroad. Europe’s task is to support that connection: to make integration not just a bureaucratic process, but a lived experience of belonging.

These should be the last elections defined by geopolitics. The next must be about prosperity, justice, and dignity — the true hallmarks of Europe.

Dr Baltag is a Visiting Fellow of the Institute for Diplomacy and International Affairs. She researches EU external relations and diplomacy, with particular focus on democratisation in the Eastern Partnership. Outside of academia she is the cofounder of Noroc Olanda Stichting, a Moldovan diaspora NGO based in the Netherlands. If you would like to get in contact with Dr Baltag the head to her LinkedIn page.